David Owen

So after all those thrills and spills along the way, we can now sit back and await Sunday's inevitable showdown between Kylian Mbappé's France and Lionel Messi's Argentina. Right?

Wrong: Croatia has the best midfield at this World Cup; that alone puts a repeat of the Russia 2018 final, between the Balkan nation and France very much within the bounds of possibility.

This would be only the second such repeat-final in the tournament’s 92-year history, the first being West Germany versus Argentina in 1986 and 1990; both sides registered one win.

I bet, moreover, that the surprise-package Moroccans have been licking their lips since last Saturday evening over the recklessness of some of injury-hit France's defensive play in the 2-1 win over England.

If the North Africans can get their noses in front - and their flowing, astute breakaways thus far in the tournament suggest they are well capable of this - then the holders will face the same problem that has defeated four other top European sides already at Qatar 2022: how on earth do you penetrate the tough, well-drilled Moroccan rearguard?

Yes, granted: if anyone can, Didier Deschamps’s men can. Even so, you would not catch me staking the house on it.

Croatia have already confounded those pundits who thought they might prove to be one of the sides time had caught up with.

Instead, their 37-year-old superstar Luka Modrić continues to pull the strings to great effect. What is more - crucially - his contributions serve the team, rather than vice versa.

Argentina will once again look up to the X-factor of Lionel Messi ©Getty Images
Argentina will once again look up to the X-factor of Lionel Messi ©Getty Images

For all this, the real revelation of this Croatian side - not for the first time since the men in red and white checks burst onto the international football scene by advancing as far as the semi-finals at France 1998 - has been the quality of some of its less well-known members.

The Dinamo Zagreb goalkeeper Dominik Livaković has been outstanding - a key factor for a team whose comparative weakness upfront tends to make penalty shootouts plentiful.

Mind you, it could be argued that the four best goalkeepers of Qatar 2022 have been those whose teams are still standing.

Masked sweeper Josko Gvardiol has confirmed his promise, looking every inch the new Virgil van Dijk and perhaps even one day the new Franz Beckenbauer.

Glasgow Celtic right-back Josip Juranović has been a revelation, while on the other flank VfB Stuttgart’s Borna Sosa looks top-class.

Having knocked out Neymar’s Brazil, they will have no fear of Messi’s Argentina - particularly given the outcome when they clashed four years ago in a group-stage game in Nizhny Novgorod: a convincing 3-0 win for Modrić and his chums that left the South Americans' qualification hopes hanging by the proverbial thread.

After studying Argentina’s palpable consternation when the Netherlands switched to route one in a desperate scramble for quarter-final survival, furthermore, the Balkan side might even have an idea or two for advancing without having to resort to spot-kicks.

Having said all that, Argentina usually manage to score, and it is never wise to discount the X-factor of Messi, whose last chance this will probably be to win a World Cup.

It remains one of the joyous mysteries of sport how the little man’s opponents seem quite unable to dispossess him; but they rarely can.

The battle between Achraf Hakimi and his PSG teammate Kylian Mbappé could determine the second semi-final ©Getty Images
The battle between Achraf Hakimi and his PSG teammate Kylian Mbappé could determine the second semi-final ©Getty Images

Argentina’s legendary travelling support could also be a factor: their fans will far outnumber Croatia’s, even if this means that their edginess could transmit itself to the players as easily as their fervour.

In the other semi-final, Morocco - whose supporters will certainly provide them with a massive lift, come what may - have a real chance.

All the signs so far suggest, after all, that this injury-depleted French squad is a notch or two down from its counterpart of four years ago, the best side at Russia 2018 by an almost embarrassing margin.

Yet there are two things in particular, over and above the experience and quality of their opponents, that might derail the African side.

The first is in their heads: sports overachievers can sometimes appear overwhelmed after a certain point by the magnitude of their own accomplishments.

From what we have seen so far, Walid Regragui and his men do not seem the types to fall prey to this; but it is hard to be absolutely sure.

The second potential negative for the Moroccans is the drip, drip, drip of their rising injury toll.

This did not stop them blunting Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, but sooner or later, you would think, its impact must be felt by a squad which, let’s be honest, few expected to progress from a group bracketing them with the Croats and Belgium.

Against this, arguably their best player so far - Achraf Hakimi - is not only in prime position to counter the threat of Mbappé, but they are team-mates at Paris Saint-Germain.

Fiorentina’s Sofyan Amrabat has been by miles the best screening midfield-player of the competition, while Azzedine Ounahi is shaping up as an apprentice Patrick Vieira.

Ounahi and Co will have to get to grips, notably, with Antoine Griezmann, who has remade himself in the space created by Mbappé and whose stupendous cross onto Olivier Giroud’s head won the clash with England.

If they do, the French, under the eye of their football-loving President, may find this their sternest test yet - as a semi-final should be.